Friday, February 1, 2013

This mental trickery is a subtle thing



Still reading Hildreth Cross’ Introduction to Psychology published in 1952. In the chapter “Psychology and the Scientific Method" she writes:

The fifth step (in the Scientific Method) is the most important of all; on it hinges the final value of all research. It makes no difference how careful and painstaking the experimenter may have been in assembling and presenting his data, the effort and time will have wasted if the scientist has permitted bias or prejudice to influence his interpretation. Great care needs to be exercised to prevent reading into the data findings that have not actually been made and the reading out of the data those that have been made. On the basis of what has been found, it is easy to assume that the results would hold consistently were the research to be continued. While in most cases this probably would be a valid inference, there might be conditions where such would lead to serious error.

Then, too, it is easy to emphasize the findings that support a favorite hypothesis and to suppress those that are contrary to it. Perhaps a completely unbiased mind is impossible. Too often, it is at this point that scientific investigation fails. The one reporting his findings may hardly be aware of the influence of his previously arranged dogma as it affects his thinking, Many times, unwittingly, he tends to ignore negative findings and to the same degree he may stress those data that favor his hypothesis. This mental trickery is a subtle thing, and the sincere investigator needs to be aware of it. To be conscious of such a possibility is to be safeguarded in the maintenance of a scientific spirit.

Had Dr. Cross written her book 8 years later she would have had a name to the describe the ease with which we support a favorite hypothesis and suppress those contrary to it. In 1960 Peter Wason coined the term "confirmation bias" to describe the tendency for people to immediately favor information that validates their preconceptions, hypotheses and personal beliefs regardless of whether they are true or not.

I fear I am unable to overcome it. Most believe they’re exempt.

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